Showing posts with label Mileage Math. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mileage Math. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

The Scandi Run: Preview

Photo from my accommodations.  Adorable, yes?
I never mileage run to Europe.  Not kidding.  I have been to Asia, South America, Africa, you name it.... but never Europe.  There's a few reasons for this historically, most having to do with it simply not being far away enough to make sense, and Oneworld not having the most hub cities there. 

This is not to say I don't jump at the chance to go, it just tends to be a destination I get to by using my miles, not on account of earning them, and I try to stay awhile.

But, as they say, we live in interesting times.  As I tried to lay out some time ago, when AA switched the system up and effectively ruined mileage running for long distances on low fares, it was a choice of giving up or getting creative.  Guess which one I (and my friends I've met along the way) went with??

(I'm now going to go on about how this actually works, rather than random facts about airports, and hijinks I stumbled into in random cities.  If you're not interested in this, I suggest jumping down about 3 paragraphs where I'll get back to my thoughts on 36 hours freezing to death in Denmark in March)

The new strategy to still earn plenty of miles is to stalk the deals for cheap fares in premium cabins of other Oneworld airlines.  This usually means business class on Qatar, or premium economy on British Airways, and occasionally Cathay Pacific.  The further bit of intrigue, is that these deals almost never originate in the US.  So to take advantage, one has to first get to the city of departure.  What this further means (if you're still reading this at all) is that it's in your best interest to buy more than one of the deals when you find them at a time so you only have to get one 'positioning flight' per year, or per deal.

Let's put the plan into context, shall we?  This year, there have been some premium economy deals on BA out of most all of the Scandinavian countries to the US, and specifically, to LAX which is clearly convenient for me in particular.  To further sweeten the deal, there have on occasion been some crazy cheap economy deals on AA from LAX to various European cities, including....Scandinavia.  You see where I'm going with this?

The deal has been good from Stockholm, Copenhagen, Oslo, and on occasion Helsinki, which all adds up to it getting coined (yes, by me) the 'Scandi run' since the destinations are interchangeable, more or less, for the same prices and miles earned.

100% Denmark- bikes, bricks & spires.  Nothing's overly tall in Copenhagen, so it's nicknamed the city of spires as they're the defining feature of the skyline, if you can even really call it that.
What it all adds up to for me this year, is flying out to Copenhagen on AA in March, and then 'returning' on that ticket in October, and flying back and forth on BA premium economy tickets on scattered weekends in between all year.  3 weekends, to be exact, though I'm thinking of adding one more at the end, and then flying back on an award ticket.  We'll see.

So.... this all results in my getting to say I GET TO GO TO DENMARK 3 TIMES.  Sure, each time is only for about 2 nights, and I have to brave 12+ hours of slightly more comfortable economy to get there, but after 16+ hours in coach to Hong Kong a few weeks ago, I'm feeling pretty bulletproof.  I'm honestly more worried about how in the heck to pack light on a mileage run for actual winter conditions.  I'm quickly realizing that all my other runs were to hot, and many times insanely hot, climates. 


A particularly famous spire- Christianborg
My outbound flight is on AA (the first half of the 'positioning flight') and so I'm playing the upgrade game to Heathrow.  After a stopover for some food and a shower at the excellent lounges there, I'll make the quick hop to CPH and take the metro into town. 

Copenhagen is extremely easy to get around on public transportation, just about anywhere you want to go.  I had initially thought of staying by the airport in the AC Sky Bella hotel in Orestad, which is a newer, planned area of Copenhagen by the Kastrup airport, but after realizing it is really only a 15 minute train into town, and I could save 50% by booking an Airbnb in the center of the city, my choice was easy.

Christianshavn
I'm now staying in Christenshavn, which is a truly adorable part of the city on a series of canals, in a flat with my hosts Magnus and Mikkel.  Awesome.  It's central to many attractions, full of cafes and bars, and you can walk/bike just about anywhere in a few minutes. 

This, however, also brings up the fact that on arrival I'll likely have to answer the age-old question of why I'm in Denmark in the first place, and further, why I'm only there for about 36 hours before turning around and going right back where I came from.  It may surprise you, but many people find this just a tiny bit strange.  Hotels don't ask, but I get the feeling that my host(s) just might.

I've thought from time to time about coming up with a reusable story to explain myself, other than having to dig into the whole logic (or illogic) of mileage running.  But what to say?  Most business travelers don't come into town just for a Sunday, of all things.  They also don't stay up late/get up early to stay on their home timezone, and they definitely don't wander in looking very much like they've just spent 15 hours in economy and somehow still are enjoying their lives.

In any event, it's a work in progress.  I'll let you know.

I expect there may be snow on all of this when I get there.
For more details of things to do in Copenhagen, we're currently writing up our adventures from the Summer over at Baby Flyer Blog.  On these shorter, colder, trips, I'll probably try to get to some favorite places like Honen & Aegget and Den Vandrette in Nyhavn for tradition's sake, but other than that I'm looking forward to playing my one real day in town by ear.  I have no delusions of elaborate castle tours, or getting a table at Noma.  That's not what mileage runs are all about.  Get there, see a thing or two, chat with some locals, and get safely back home again.

My flight out on Monday is plenty early (7am!) which with the time change is about.... 11 at night back home?  You can't think too hard about these things, just get to the plane.  The return flight from London this time around is on BA's, and the world's, largest passenger jet, the a380.  They're smooth and modern, and I was able to preselect a good seat without paying extra on account of the Oneworld Emerald status I'm flying so far to keep up.  I do have the potential option to try for an upgrade by using some Amex points, but I think this time around I'll let it go and see.  It's only 12 hours, anyway.  Easy.

So, that's the Scandi run in a nutshell.  I hope it goes as I think it will in my head, seeing as how I'm doing it at least three times this year.  Wish me luck.

~CruisingAltitude

Friday, November 11, 2016

The New Math, Mileage Style...

Welcome to Doha- Your destination for all your future mileage earning needs. 
 
So, so.... what can we say about current events?  Plenty, but this is not the blog for that.  As part of my angst over the past couple weeks, I decided to direct some energy elsewhere, and finish up planning my mileage runs for next year early.  I mean, it was that, or watching old episodes of "Commander In Chief" and killing a bottle of wine.  So, choices....

Now, I know that this type of early planning my not fit the traditional definition of 'Mileage Running' as it used to be, back when you'd just top up your mileage account in November or December on a few long flights, preferably with some added Double Miles bonus, or other incentive.  However, those days are over.  Since the revenue-based earnings and elite qualifying dollars have been introduced across the US's three major carriers, getting your status done each year has needed to get more creative.

Enter, the new Mileage Lifestyle.  Ironically, it's far more lucrative to renew you American Airlines status (or Delta for that matter) by trying to almost never step on an American flight on a mileage run.  Good job with that planning, AA leadership, we're all about to know way more about the Doha airport than we ever imagined.

"The Teddy Bear" at the DOH airport.  You will get used to it, I promise.
Instead, I'm heading to a few of the Oneworld partner airlines who, on occasion, have some very lucrative sales on premium class tickets to all corners of the world. What's important to know, is that partner flights in premium classes more or less earn redeemable miles like 'the good old days.'  For an Executive Platinum member, you stand to earn based on the miles flown, plus a 120% bonus, plus any cabin class bonus miles.  They also earn some extra elite qualifying miles, and more importantly, elite qualifying dollars based on a percentage of the distance flown.

Let's have a quick look at some 'sweet spot' examples.  First up, Qatar:
(Click on the chart for larger image)
So, what's the deal here?  The place to look on this chart is at those business R and I codes.  Qatar has been liking to sell promotional fares in these buckets for a fraction of what they're worth.  There have been discounts, holiday code sales, and 2 for 1 deals.  Simply put- this airline is growing, has a lot of business class seats to sell, and a lot of government 'equity.' 

What does this mean in terms of earnings?  How is it different than flying AA?  Well, for starters, let's do the math for each.  Let's take a hypothetical $1000 ticket for round numbers (yes, this is an expensive mileage run, but...math).  At the outset, on one of these fare deals you might be booking into business class for long haul on Qatar, while you almost certainly would be in coach on AA.  Let's say the ticket travels 20,000 base miles (this is like an itinerary from LAX-Doha-SE Asia and back, which is long, most average long haul ones lately have been in the 17-18k range for me but once again, math). 

On AA, in economy as an EXP, you would earn 11,000 redeemable miles (the $1000 you spent, times 11), 20,000 elite qualifying miles (the distance you flew), and $1000 elite qualifying dollars.  I'm assuming that the $1000 does not include the taxes that aren't included in the qualifying dollars under the new rules. So in short, the AA flight = economy travel (maybe you could standby for the upgrade) and 11k usable miles, 20k elite qualifying, and 1k elite qualifying dollars.

Now the same $1000 ticket on Qatar- at the start, you'd be in business class. So there's that.  Your earnings would look like this: 44,000 redeemable miles (20k + 120% bonus), 30,000 elite qualifying miles (the 20k with a 1.5 multiplier), and $4000 elite qualifying dollars (20k flown miles times .20).

Anyone see where I'm going with this???

I'll also note that I've recently been able to find some great deals on one way and shorter-haul Qatar tickets that book into A and D classes, making them even more lucrative.

Now, let's assume that in all honesty you're likely to pay a bit more for that Qatar business ticket, than the AA economy ticket.  Fair enough, but with current rates you're only going to be paying a few hundred more from what I've seen, if you're willing to dig around for the deals.  Add to that that at a $.02 value, those extra miles are worth in the neighborhood of $600, and with miles being harder to come by these days, I value them even more. Further, you don't need to burn a systemwide upgrade (someplace around a $350+ value) trying to make this trip comfortable, which is good, since we're only getting four now.  Save those for that trip with the family to Europe.

But, you say, 'What if I don't want to go to Doha? I'm trying to avoid 110 degree heat and questionable governments this year!'  Well, there are some other bright spots in the partner charts.  Take, for instance, British Airways' premium economy tickets.
(Click on the chart for a larger image)
Have a look at those W, E and T fares.  I've seen those get reasonably priced for some long haul flights.  What's even more interesting about those, is that if you have some Avios, or some AmEx Membership awards points that can be made into Avios, those fares can be upgraded to business class using them. Not a bad way to go to, say, Africa, and back in business class for well under 2k. 

So, this is the first iteration of the new mileage math.  It has its downsides: you're more limited in destination on average, though AA also has a few routes that always came up as well.  The initial price may be a shade higher, but you get more for it, and may need to do less.  The takeaway here, is that it's still possible to find some good deals to keep your status, and enjoy doing it.  

As an added bonus, we're about to finally know where Qatar is.

To see my preview of what a 'new math' mileage run looks like: Best Worst Decisions

Thanks for reading and travel well,

-CruisingAltitude

PS, if you don't want to spend your days and nights learning the ins and outs of mileage math, but still want to travel better, let me help you!  Check out Altitude Consulting and get in touch!

Saturday, September 26, 2015

It's that time again...again....

AA heritage at the Air and Space Museum in DCA (on a layover, of course)

** disclaimer- posted unedited from Miami under time constraints.  Be kind.**

Is it really 2015?  Have I been doing this for over 5 years?  It both seems ridiculous, and like it’s been even longer.  

Today marks the first day of the ‘real’ 2015 ‘mileage season’ for me, if you don’t count that little jaunt over (around? down?) to Hong Kong this spring.  Today’s flight out of LAX is headed to Miami, and from there my traveling companions and I hop the 777-300ER that we all love so much for a relatively quick flight down to Sao Paulo, Brazil.  We’ll have a 2 day one night stay, and then take the return flight up to Miami again, and stop in JFK on our way back.  You know… like everyone does. 

The upgrades have cleared for both the long hauls, and I’ve got a plan to do a flight change to get the last segment taken care of as well, so all is good so far. 

I wanted to take a few minutes before I get distracted by the in-flight movie or views of the southern transcon route to do my traditional ‘start of mileage season’ rundown.  I almost forgot (read-ran out of time) but, what are 5 hour morning flights for?

This year, due to some fluctuating work travel plans, I’ve booked two long hauls- Sao Paulo, and back to Jakarta- as well as a couple cheap domestic flights that were too good to pass up.  This year’s been full of travel so far, but much has been domestic and relatively close to home in comparison with my average, so I’m having to manufacture a decent amount.  I don’t mind the adventure, though. 
2015 Flightpaths.  As I always say- 'yes, really.'

The Sao Paulo trip will be my first visit to Brazil (and I’m now the proud owner of a shiny new ten year Brazilian visa thank-you-very-much).  We’re scheduled to meet some of my work contacts upon landing and spend some time with them getting shown the city.  I’ve been waiting for a deal to GRU to come up for a few years, so I’m excited to finally be on my way. 

This trip also has a nice long stopover in Miami, so we can check out the newly opened Centurion Lounge in Terminal D (new lounge smell…yes, I’m tempted to say it), as well as some time in JFK on the way back. (Spoiler alert, it's fantastic, though crowded)

I’m also lucky (crazy?) enough to have been doing this long enough to have met quite a few other long haul mileage running friends.  I’ve met them online through flyertalk, by chance in airports, and even gotten some of my ‘real life’ friends hooked on this ‘game.’  The upshot of all of this, is that I rarely mileage run alone.
Chance meeting with other mileage runners (and their Flyertalk-tagged bags) in CGK, all en route to Tokyo for the day! There are dozens of us out there I tell you, dozens!! ;)  


Dinner at Nobu at the HKG Intercontinental with strangers who are now all best friends!
What’s really great about meeting other mileage runners, is that they’re uniformly intriguing.  They are on average, highly educated, self sufficient, of course well traveled, and come from all walks of life.  Mileage running is probably the only ‘pass time’ where a normal weekend could be meeting a bunch of strangers from around the US for the first time in the Toronto airport, flying with them to Hong Kong, going out to Nobu at the Intercontinental, and then ending up having a beer in someone’s hotel room from a 7-11 at 2am (local time), after the bar at the Ritz closed for the night.  And… it’s considered completely normal behavior to everyone in the group. 
Cheers to Mileage Running buddies - They're the only ones who will go on 3 hours sleep to be there when the new lounge opens at 6am, talk on and on about planes with you for 5 hours until your flight, and consider it all to have been time well spent. 
Now, I know entries in a travel blog are supposed to be ‘entertaining’ or ‘enlightening,’ or at least funny or something.  However, I have learned from experience that consistently my most read entries are the dry, ‘mileage math’ so, someone likes them.  And in accordance with that… here’s some more!

Besides, I’m convinced ‘Universal on American’ is turning in to basically the golf channel with some re-runs of Fallon, so what better do I have to do? (RIP 30 Rock, I miss you)

This weekend’s trip nets around 14,000 miles, and my tour of Asia is worth roughly 21,000.  The combined cents per mile ‘CPM’ of the deals works out to just shy of $0.04, which is pretty decent.  Plus, when you add in the REAL steals of this year- two $81 ROUND TRIP tickets to Chicago from LAX, it drags it down even further.  As usual, this year’s totals put me solidly in the realm of ‘even money,’ if not ‘making money,’ on the trips. 

As I’ve rambled on about earlier [SEE] miles and EXP benefits can be thought of as a unique kind of currency, the exchange rate of which depends, not on market forces, but on what you spend them on.  Overall, I’ve given them a $0.02 price tag, but the truth is if you’re spending them on run of the mill domestic tickets, without being too selective of what you redeem for, you’re probably more likely to be getting $0.015 or even a bit (or a lot) worse. However, if you’re creative, and take the time to redeem them for first class, business class, or better yet, international first or business, you can pull down some seriously fantastic ‘conversion rates.’ 

Case in point, our trip to Peru this spring.  [more on that here] We spent 60k each, plus a nominal tax amount.  We were able to book business class tickets non-stop from LAX to Lima on the 787-900 with LAN.  These tickets would have cost an average of $5000 if paying cash.  Doing the quick math, this is a whopping 8 cent per mile redemption!  I’ve had similar redemption rates to Europe, especially when taking Airberlin’s business class to avoid those outrageous ‘fuel surcharges.’ So, if you do a mix of big ‘aspirational’ award trips with your everyday hopping around the US, and redeeming for Y to F upgrades, which always seem to come out to $0.02 on the nose, 2 cpm is a fair valuation, in my opinion.  

All of this, of course, is to be taken with a grain of salt as the overriding truth is that miles are a currency, and like any modern currency, they’re subject to depreciation.  Airlines will always be upping the amount of miles to redeem seats, and condensing the amount of seats available.  So, the logical plan is to spend as you earn, and if you’re lucky enough to be able to plan ahead, get things booked well in advance as this will ‘lock in’ the ‘price’ for you.  Then you can sit back, relax, and brag to your friends about the awesome deal you got on that ‘life changing’ trip, until their eyes glaze over, and they change the subject to the weather, the traffic, or something having recently caught on fire that they need to attend to immediately.

So…. What has all of this got us?  To summarize: 

-It’s mileage season again, and the sky’s the limit as usual for the bizarre routings and adventure. 

-Appreciate and cherish other people willing to indulge in above-described bizarre routings and adventure with you.

-Miles can be worth more than you think, especially if you have a hankering to explore Inca ruins, or to bike down the ‘runway’ at Tempelhof park.

-Oh, and 7-11s are open 24 hours in Hong Kong.  That might be the most important lesson of them all.

Happy flying,

~Cruising Altitude
Good night, skies. 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Let's Do That Again....

Yes, this picture I took of 'AA through the years' at ORD hangs in my office.  Don't judge....
As it's the opening week of my Mileage Season, I'm obliged to honor my tradition of posting the layout of my travel plans on the way to 100k and EXP status for 'One More Year.'  This will be the fourth time I've said 'One More Year,' for those keeping track at home.

I thought last year's mega-mileage runs would cure me of this hobby.  I mean, booking yourself 48 solid flight hours over a long weekend should logically deter a reasonable person from wanting to get back on a plane for the foreseeable future.  But, as has been made clear, mileage runners aren't reasonable people.  At least not about this.

Honestly, even with the jetlag, the hours in economy seating, warmed-over food, Chinese smog in Shanghai, and questionable connections in snowstorms, I had a blast.  I met new people, saw things and places I didn't even know I was looking for, and learned to navigate cities and airports as foreign as they come.

So, in four short days, I'm off on the first of this year's two long-haul runs.... and I can't wait.  

I think 'Donkey' said it best...



As any mileage runner who's in it for the status level knows, the adventure can be a by-product of the goal of reaching 25, 50, or 100k miles.  So, for those wondering where the mileage runs are this year, and why, here's an overview of this season's itineraries-

This season is comprised of two long weekends headed West over the Pacific from Dallas to various destinations in Asia.  Weekend one is the longer of the two, coming in at around 22,600 elite qualifying miles, with a flight path from LAX-DFW on the red eye to meet up with a mid-morning nonstop to Hong Kong.  I then have a night at an airport hotel, before heading out the next morning from HKG to Jakarta, Indonesia.  There's about 8 hours on the ground there, enough time to go relax a little at a close-by Sheraton resort (on points, of course), before an overnight flight to Tokyo Narita.  Then about twelve hours of daylight time there to go into the city and see a few things, before hopping on the return NRT-DFW-LAX trip back home again.  Simple, right? 

The flights look like this:
via Great Circle Mapper.  Sidenote- the circumference of the Earth is only slightly longer than this run.

What's fun about this run is that it allows some time on the ground in each city, but not so much that the time changes start to get disruptive.  I don't have any specific plans of where to go during the stopovers, so I can relax, or not.  Secondly, I'm really looking forward to getting back to the NRT airport lounge.  Last season I had a great layover there including a nice massage, shower, and some fantastic food and drink.  Plus, the premiere lounge in HKG, 'The Wing,' is constantly in the running for the best airport lounge in the OneWorld system.

As for the other bits of intrigue about this run- the outbound is on AA's 777-300er, which I've previously reviewed.  It's AA's biggest and shiniest plane, at least in the forward cabins. If you're lucky enough for an upgrade to clear, is a fantastic way to sleep away a 16+ hr trans-pacific flight.  The inter-asia flights are on Cathay Pacific and JAL, both of whom offer fantastic service, even in economy.  The longer leg on JAL up to Tokyo is being flown on a large plane, and reports from other mileage runners are coming back that it's nearly empty, letting passengers spread out and take rows to themselves- the economy traveler's 'lie-flat suite.'

The second weekend is a simpler riff on the first.  It's a two night trip to Hong Kong, with time for a stay at the Sheraton in the city.  I'll hopefully have just finished qualifying for SPG Platinum status by then, so hoping for lounge access and a nice upgrade.  No actual appointments, so free to stay on my original timezone if I choose.  The flight path originates in ORD, so I found some milesaver award positioning flights to accommodate.  All in all, the flights look like this:


Also, for comparison's sake, here's the links to previous years' posts on this topic can be found here:
2013 (Johannesburg, ZA and Shanghai)
2012 (Four times to Boston and back)
2009 (NYC and Boston) (yes, my first entry!)

Since I always see people who are curious about mileage running, or deciding whether it's worth it, or if they're finding good deals, asking about it I'll lay out the nuts and bolts of the 'mileage math' for these runs.  They were similar in price, both sub-5 cents per mile ("cpm"), and as I had a $400 voucher from last year when I took a flight change at AA's request, I was able to get a combined 3.5 cpm for the 40,504 elite-qualifying miles these trips will net me.  (yes, that number's even a palindrome, has to be good luck!)  With the status-based doubling for redeemable miles I'm earning 81,008 at 1.7cpm to put towards future travel or upgrades.  Even without the voucher, most people would consider these flights decent mileage runs for status.

'Congratulations, your mileage runs come with a free first class trip to Urubamba, Peru!'
As an example of what this many miles can get you, I took the miles I earned last year and booked myself and Mrs. CruisingAltitude on LAN's 1st class flights to Lima, Peru and onwards to Cusco to go to the Sacred Valley next year at a rate of 60,000 miles per ticket round trip.

Paying cash for these would start at around $4,000.  So, in this example those 60,000 miles earned at 1.7cpm means the ticket 'cost' just over $1,000.  Even this is over-priced as the mileage runs were also a way to gain all the benefits of Executive Platinum status, which on their own far outweigh the cash spent on the tickets.  In a sense, the trip to Peru is a fun side effect of making status.

I booked us at the Tambo Del Inka Resort in Urubamba.  Rumored to be one of the most beautiful SPG properties in the system.  Also one of the best of this level for cash & points redemptions, making stays here start at $110 per night + points.
Indoor/Outdoor pool and spa at Tambo Del Inka.  The resort also features its own train station on the line to Machu Picchu.
Okay....I've probably lost 90% of readers at this point.  For the 10% of you who still care, there's more rambling on this subject on [this post] from last year.  Good luck.

At this point in my mileage running career, I keep wavering between being a little sheepish about it all, and wanting to share my adventures.  One thing that constantly surprises me is how many people actually want to learn about it, even if only to comment on how ridiculous it is.  As mileage season generally lines up with the holidays and time spent with family (most of whom we have to fly to see), I usually end up recounting the latest set of adventures on these visits.  There was enough discussion of it last year after I got back from my JNB  and PVG runs that the first holiday toast (not given by me) was aptly concluded with:

 "....And my flight to be with you all tonight cost me $500 round trip, but it came with about 3 new sweaters."

Sounds like a decent deal to me.

Until the next flight,

~CruisingAltitude